{"id":11516,"date":"2026-08-04T08:35:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T06:35:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/?p=11516"},"modified":"2026-08-04T08:35:26","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T06:35:26","slug":"11516","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/2026\/08\/04\/11516\/","title":{"rendered":"A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Deogratius Wenceslaus KIMOLO, Nicholas Mbaya ODHIAMBO<\/p>\n<p><em>University of South Africa (UNISA), Pretoria, South Africa<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><u>64045412@mylife.unisa.ac.za<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><u>odhianm@unisa.ac.za<\/u><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Abstract: <\/em><\/strong><em>In this paper, we examine the direction of heterogeneous causality between inflation and economic growth in East African countries (EAC) for the period 1970\u20132023. Most regional studies, while finding single-regime inflation thresholds, remain silent on the directional and shock-contingent Granger causality. Motivated by this gap, we apply the Dumitrescu\u2013Hurlin heterogeneous panel Granger noncausality framework, as well as the Hatemi-J asymmetric shock decomposition framework, to distinguish between positive and negative innovations. Symmetric panel results indicate unidirectional Granger causality running from inflation to real GDP per capita growth, though this aggregated result conceals shock-dependent dynamics. Furthermore, the asymmetric decomposition suggests that the relationship is primarily shock-dependent and asymmetric: that is, positive inflation shocks Granger-cause positive growth shocks, while negative growth shocks Granger-cause negative inflation shocks. No evidence of cross-regime effects is found. These findings suggest that the inflation\u2013growth nexus appears to be asymmetric, regime-dependent in the EAC, and that it may be undesirable to impose uniform convergence criteria if the inflation\u2013growth predictability differs systematically across expansionary and contractionary regimes. Broadly, our results highlight the need to allow for cross-country heterogeneity in estimation and to explicitly test for dependence of shocks in causality analysis of emerging monetary unions.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Keywords: <\/em><\/strong><em>Inflation; Economic Growth; East African Community; Panel Granger Causality; Heterogeneous Panels; Asymmetric Shocks.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>JEL Classification: <\/em><\/strong><em>E31; O55; C23; O47; C33; F45.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/04_Kimolo.pdf\">Download article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES: NEW EVIDENCE FROM SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TESTS Deogratius Wenceslaus KIMOLO, Nicholas Mbaya ODHIAMBO University of South Africa (UNISA), Pretoria, South Africa 64045412@mylife.unisa.ac.za odhianm@unisa.ac.za Abstract: In this paper, we examine the direction of heterogeneous causality between inflation and economic growth in East African [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123465,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/s3c4cf-11516","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11516"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/123465"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11516"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11521,"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11516\/revisions\/11521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}